Data is sacrosanct. It is truth and truth has no wings, left or right.

As with all large organisations, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has in its midst many radioactive beta-emitters who, before they fissure into insignificance, peddle vested theories with the specific intent of scare-mongering. This is nothing new. We are, after all, a free country and everyone is entitled to his or her opinion. Problem comes when such opinion flies in the face of scientific rigour and understanding, or when it turns from a mere utterance into a national policy. A case in point being Dattatreya Hosabale, the RSS Joint General Secretary, who is of the view that Hindus should start having more children to prevent a demographic imbalance. “Bigger Hindu families would prevent minorities from gaining the upper hand in terms of population in certain parts of the country…elite Hindus should seriously review family planning”. It did the Bharatiya Janata Party’s reputation no harm when its senior office bearer squarely condemned the remark: “These fringe ideological positions do more harm than good. It keeps people away from what is truly a much needed right-of-centre pole in Indian politics. The Sangh has consistently failed to nurture intellectualism through institutions and individuals”.

To be sure, the fault also lies elsewhere. The Hosabales of this world will continue to market hearsay so long as our own government continues to withhold information which all Indians should be privy to. How can they be made to see reason if everyone is blind to it? I talk of the 2011 Census report that deliberately misses out on the religion demographic data.

On December 13, 2013, Newslaundry decided to force an answer out of the government by filing an RTI application.

 

Months have passed without any success, despite numerous personal visits to the concerned departments by Somi Das from Newslaundry. On her last visit to the Census Offices, February 4, 2014, she was told that religion demographic data would be made available only after the elections and that once the code of conduct was in place they were in no position to release it.

It is quite apparent that the officers were waiting for the code of conduct to kick in. Meanwhile, it appears that at least a sizeable portion of the religion demographic data has been leaked. According to last week’s issue of Open, that got access to the leaked data, the Muslim electorate “has registered a substantial increase since 2001 – especially in 10 big states. The rise in Muslim numbers is most noticeable in Assam, where they were found to make up 34.2 per cent of the population in 2011, up by more than 3 per cent since 2001. In West Bengal, this religious group’s share rose by almost 2 per cent to 27 per cent. In Kerala, by 2 per cent to 26.6 per cent. Uttarakhand has seen a similar rise to 13.9 per cent. In UP and Bihar, the increase is about 1 per cent, with the Muslim headcount at 19.3 and 16.9 per cent respectively. Jharkhand, Delhi and Maharashtra report similar increases, with the 2011 figures rising to 14.5, 12.9 and 11.5 per cent respectively, while Karnataka has seen a rise of just below 1 per cent to 12.9 per cent”.

Open, however, does not mention the total Indian Muslim population, nor does it mention the concomitant change in the non-Muslim population. For example, in Kerala, where according to Open the Muslim population showed a growth of 1.9%, the non-Muslim population naturally reduced by the same amount.

 

 

*The 2011 Muslim population of Kerala has been calculated according to percentage growth given in Open.

** All figures from www.censusindia.gov.in

 So, do these leaked Muslim population growth numbers mean anything? Yes and no.

The growth in population of a country or a religious community is measured through scientific means, not hearsay, and the measure most demographers use is Total Fertility Rate or TFR. It is the average number of children born to a woman through her childbearing years – her bearing two children is considered the replacement rate (as the children would replace the parents in time). A TFR of a little higher than 2 means that the population is stable and growing, while a very high TFR points to a burgeoning population and brings with it the many problems associated with population explosion, including, it must be said, politics of demography.

Counter to the scare-mongering of Mr Hosabale, TFRs show a decidedly downward trend in countries that have large Muslim populations. India, that has a Muslim population of 138 million (2001 census) has a TFR of 2.51, higher than many Muslim majority countries like Indonesia (TFR of 2.18) and Turkey (2.08). The country with the highest TFR is Niger (6.89). In fact, 28 of the top 30 countries ranked according to TFRs are African, the two exceptions being Afghanistan (5.43) and East Timor (5.11). India is ranked 80 (TFR of 2.51), above Bangladesh, a Muslim country (2.45). Iran, an Islamic republic, has a TFR of only 1.85, much below the replacement level.

On the other hand, an Indian TFR of 2.51 tells only part of the story. In 2005-06 – the latest figures available for TFRs according to religious groups – Muslims had a TFR of 3.09 while the figure for Hindus was 2.65. The TFRs of both groups have been falling steadily over the years – in 1984 they were 4.5 and 5.6 for Hindus and Muslims respectively, and with increasing use of contraceptives among Muslims – 45.7% in 2005-06 as opposed to just 37% in 1998-99 – it is believed that Muslim TFRs will very soon approach the national average.

Another important indicator for population growth is the Crude Natural Increase or CNI (obtained by subtracting Crude Death Rate from Crude Birth Rate). Presently, it is 13 for India. In comparison, Ukraine has a CNI of -4, Japan -2, and Niger a jaw-dropping 38. An old 2005 estimate shows the Muslim and Hindu CNIs to be 23.7 and 16.8 respectively. A decade has passed since these numbers were collated through Census and NFHS surveys, and the latest religious demographic data would have brought out encouraging results as far as TFR and CNI were concerned. It would also have thrown light on the perplexing fact that decade on decade, the Hindu population has been declining while the Muslim population shows an upward trend. The table below shows the census figures provided by the Ministry of Social Justice & Empowerment, Government of India.

 

 

These figures are difficult to explain on the basis of TDR and CNI data alone. To solve this conundrum one needs to factor in the missing pieces: contributing events that lead to population fluctuation – illegal immigration and religious conversions. In the first case, the Hindu population growth is not affected, while in the second, an increase in the Muslim population correlates with a concomitant decrease in the Hindu population. Unfortunately, in both cases, there is no government data available and one can only draw an inference from the population fluctuations in states that border countries from where large-scale immigration takes place. Here, too, unrestricted movement of the illegal immigrant within India makes it difficult to ascertain the true figure.

As for the second category, namely that of religious conversion, again, there is no data other than anecdotal or non-rigorous. A Reuters report, for example, states that the number of Christians rose by 66 per cent from 1991 to 2001 in Kandhamal district of Odisha. But inference from such reports is hazy at best. Add to that the widespread under-reporting of conversions for fear of losing caste-based reservation benefits and it gets murkier still.

Population fluctuation is a composite phenomenon, but not one that cannot be studied scientifically. For that to happen it is imperative that those who collate the data, release it in a clear and unprocessed form. Quite inexplicable then that the present government has decided to hold it back. Why ask questions of 1.2 billion people when you’re not prepared to reveal the answers?

Demographers are right in concluding that Muslim populations aren’t about to “explode” – the TFR data is quite conclusive. Iran is, if at all, “imploding”. Nonetheless, the 2011 religious demographic data could provide vital insights into the mechanisms through which we as a nation need to move forward. It could, for example, complement vital inferences gained from the Sachar Committee Report and aid in alleviating the plight of Indian Muslims. That it is deliberately being withheld by the UPA government can only mean one thing: we haven’t learnt anything from our past mistakes.

To bring politics of opportunism into what is purely a scientific exercise is to spit at Galileo – yet again. Also, the fact that no mainstream newspaper or news channel has thought it fit to investigate this unethical and counterproductive withholding of scientific information is equally troublesome. Both acts show scant respect for the need to formulate national policies based on unbiased scientific rigour. That said, Hosabale’s call for more Hindu kids in a nation already burdened with overpopulation is certainly ridiculous and a classic case of not addressing the scourge of illegal immigration, forced conversions, illiteracy, acute poverty, and going instead for the weather-beaten jugular. Someone should tell him the silly season doesn’t begin until next month.

 

* The author would like to thank  Somi Das for filing the RTI application.